Present timber production is about 20 % higher than the alternative of applying selection fellings. The difference between spruce and birch is even bigger. When applying normal final felling systems, timber production can be increased by another 20 % by means of plant cultivation, efficient regeneration and forest fertilization.
The scientist Mr Bo Karlsson believes that it will be very difficult to change course towards forestry methods that yield less timber. Another 900 000 hectares of forest are to be protected, wood processing industry is increasing its production volume and the Swedish Government is examining ways and means to replace oil by renewable energy sources. In such a situation it is difficult to justify a timber production decrease of 20 %, when production in stead ought to be increased by that amount.
The selection felling system yields less timber and felling costs increase dramatically; the practical consequence is that decades of forestry rationalization will be ruined. Also storm risks have been analysed. Spruce cultivation is profitable even if a storm of the same magnitude as Gudrun in January 2005 hits Sweden every five years. Successive regeneration is as susceptible to storm damage as present forestry methods, says Bo Karlsson.